When will the bear market end? And how not to let emotions take over.

The strong bear market now hitting its bottom brings plenty of uncomfortable emotions with it. Worry about the price, worry about your investment, the fear that something is wrong with Bitcoin. These worries are natural, and they come back every four years. So how do you keep strong emotions in check?

Four years, three cycles, the same script every time

Bitcoin moves through regular four-year cycles. In each cycle the price of Bitcoin reaches a high and a low. The last high came on 5 October 2025 at 126,000 USD, so we are now in the price low (the bottom) of this cycle. The same script has already played out three times, and it has always run the same way: euphoria as the price climbs, then uncertainty, fear and doubt over whether the price of Bitcoin will ever rise again.

Fear and greed on a single chart

And so far, another cycle has always followed, with another price high, more euphoria and relief for everyone who didn’t sell. The chart below shows this clearly. It tracks the fear and greed index over time, set against the price of Bitcoin. You can see that fear is always highest (red) during the bear market, the price decline, and that a price rise and green follow. This repeats, and according to analysts it will repeat this time too.

charts.bitbo.io

Diamond hands take willpower

According to historical data, the only people who have lost money on Bitcoin so far are those who sold during this emotionally charged phase of the cycle. Those who held on and kept their faith in Bitcoin saw the value of their deposits rise. Having so-called diamond hands, the hands that won’t sell Bitcoin, is sometimes very hard. To keep HODLing. We’ve been through it ourselves, many times.

Nothing about Bitcoin has changed

• It’s still free and uncensorable,
• it hasn’t been hacked,
• it’s rarer and rarer (20 million of 21 already mined),
• it still works and holds value.

What’s driving its value up

• Banks have started implementing it,
• several countries have already added it to their national reserves,
• hundreds of millions of people around the world use it,
• European regulation has been created to protect users in EU countries.

It’s not a coincidence, it’s a trend

All of this is a bonus. A bonus on top of its digital security, independence, openness and neutrality. The heads of the world’s largest investment firms forecast its value in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the largest asset manager, talks about 700,000 USD per Bitcoin within a few years. Citi Bank analysts see it just below the 200,000 USD mark still in 2026. None of this is mere coincidence. It’s a trend.

The logarithmic chart says the same thing

Look at this chart, which shows the price of Bitcoin on a logarithmic scale, and you can see that its price is in fact rising continuously. The growth is slowing, it probably won’t reach the 10,000% growth of the 2012 and 2013 cycle again, but the trend is clear.

So what now?

If the information above has reassured you, think about what you’ll do with that renewed calm. Will you buy more while Bitcoin sits at a 45% discount to its all-time high? When Bitcoin reached its ATH (All Time High) in 2021 at 69,000 USD, it then fell to 16,000 USD in the bear market. Was that a good time to buy? Was it better to buy Bitcoin during the bear market, or during the growth phase?

Everyone must answer that for themselves. After all, historical data certainly does not guarantee that history will repeat itself or that returns will be guaranteed in the future.

Whatever you decide at today’s prices, at Invity we’re happy to help you buy and sell bitcoin. Just download our app and make the right decision.